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The Impact of War-Related Violence on Post-Conflict Electoral Violence - A Disaggregated Analysis
Küsel, Evita ; Aslan, Emil (advisor) ; Kocmanová, Markéta (referee)
The international community frequently advocates elections in conflict-ridden societies as an integral part of peacekeeping strategies. However, elections themselves often become the focal point of contention and violence, potentially resulting in conflict recurrence. Given the severe consequences of electoral violence, scholars have increasingly focused on analysing its causes. While significant progress has been made in explaining the occurrence of electoral violence at the country level, these studies fail to account for the substantial intra-country variation of electoral violence. The present thesis fills this research gap by examining the spatial distribution of electoral violence within post-conflict countries. Specifically, the hypothesis proposes that areas within a country that have previously experienced war-related violence are more likely to witness electoral violence in the first post-conflict election. Through analysing spatially disaggregated data from the UCDP GED and ECAV datasets, this thesis conducts a country- fixed effects regression and finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between conflict-related violence and post-conflict electoral violence at the level below the state.

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